September 1st always hits me square in the head.   June, July, or August are irrelevant to me.  Winter seems decades away  until September hits.   “Wake Up,!” it says, “Winter is coming!” And in fact it is. 51 Days until my earliest powder day in Tahoe.  89 Days until my home mountain, Squaw Valley opens.

This year everyone from the farmers, to the scientists, to the lady at the grocery store are claiming this winter is going to be a big one.  I am all for optimism. I like to find the best forecast I can find and go off that.  No one really knows what the weather is doing outside of 48 but there is nothing wrong with dreaming.  Below is what my dreams look like. Big surf in NorCal equals big snow in the Sierra.

From Stormsurf.

We have assigned a swell potential rating of 7.0 for the coming Fall and Winter season, suggesting that there is better than average odds of historically longer runs of Significant Class Winter swells.  That means not only more storm frequency, but stronger and longer lasting ones producing larger and longer lasting swells. A temporary return to the glory days of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. Compared to the absolutely abysmal surf pattern of the past 3 winter seasons where we would get one day, or even 12 hour swell events, this years pattern should stand in stark contrast and be a much welcome change. Plan your surf strategy for the long run, where endurance and stamina month after month outweght short feasts and ‘go-for-broke’ assaults.   Likewise weather will likely plan a factor in CA. More moisture than normal could be expected with increased snow pack levels in higher elevations of the Sierra on into Nevada and Colorado.  El Nino tends to shift the jetstream southward and flat over the continental US, favoring precipitation for the more southerly positioned ski resorts in the Southwest. But it too causes surface temperatures to rise, meaning the freeze line will increase in elevation with increased odds for rain at lower lying resorts.

Here’s the best part:

So assuming a weak to moderate Classic flavor of El Nino is in-play and will continue to hold through the Fall and Winter of 09/10, we calculate net storm activity will be greater than normal, with storms lasting longer in duration and moderately more intense than normal with the potential to cover more surface area, resulting in generally a larger fetch of increased duration and more intensity. This should results in more consistent, larger and longer period surf than has been seen in the past 3+ years, and perhaps better than anything in the last 10+ years.

Eric Bergeri

Sure beats summer! Photo:Eric Bergeri